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　　Study Helps Predict Big Mediterranean Quake

Scientists have found evidence that an overlooked fault in the eastern Mediterranean1 is likely to produce an earthquake and tsunami every 800 years as powerful as the one that destroyed Alexandria2 in AD3 365.

Using radiocarbon dating techniques, simulations and computer models, the researchers recreated the ancient disaster in order to identify the responsible fault. ‘We are saying there is probably a repeat time of 800 years for this kind of earthquake,' said Ms Beth Shaw, an earthquake scientist at the University of Cambridge, who led the study. Scientists study past earthquakes in order to determine the future possibility of similar large shocks.

Identifying the fault for the AD 365 earthquake and tsunami is important for the tens of millions of people in the region, Ms. Shaw said. The fault close to the southwest coast of Crete4 last produced a big enough quake to generate a tsunami about 1300, which means the next powerful one could come in the next 100 years, she added in a telephone interview.

Ms. Shaw and her colleagues calculate the likely intervals by measuring the motion of either side of the fault to find how often such large earthquakes would have to occur to account for that level of motion, she said. Their computer model suggested an 8 magnitude quake on the fault would produce a tsunami that floods the coastal regions of Alexandria and North Africa, the southern coast of Greece5 and Sicily6 all the way up the Adriati7 to Dubrovnik8. This would be similar to the ancient quake in AD 365 that caused widespread destruction in much of Greece and unleashed a tsunami that flooded Alexandria and the Nile Delta9, likely killing tens of thousands of people, she said.

　　詞彙：

fault n. 斷層 interval n. 間隔

tsunami n. 海嘯 magnitude n. 等級

radiocarbon n. 放射性碳 destruction n. 破壞，毀滅

simulation n. 模擬 unleash v. 放出，釋放

　　註釋:

1. the eastern Mediterranean: 地中海東部

2. Alexandria: 阿里山大[埃及北部港市]

3. AD: 公元后(AD是拉丁文Anno Domini首字母的所寫)

4. Crete: [希臘]克里特島

5. Greece: 希臘

6. Sicily: [義大利]西西里島