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油價金價再創新高
在美元再度走軟之際，原油及黃金價格昨日再創新高，因投資者試圖躲避第二輪信貸動盪的衝擊。
Crude oil and gold prices surged to fresh highs yesterday amid renewed dollar weakness as investors sought refuge from a second wave of credit turmoil.
西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)大幅上漲逾3美元，創下每桶97.07美元的名義高點，交易員警告稱，如果本週美國原油庫存資料較上週又有下降，油價最早可能於今日試探每桶100美元的水平。
West Texas Intermediate jumped more than $3 to a nominal record of $97.07 a barrel and traders warned it might test the $100-a-barrel level as soon as today if US crude oil inventories show another weekly decline.
美國能源情報署(Energy Information Administration)一份看漲的報告推動了油價上漲，報告稱“緊張的基本面因素”將繼續推高油價。能源情報署是美國能源部(Department of Energy)的統計機構。
The price jump was helped by a bullish report from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Energy Department, warning that “tight fundamentals” would continue to push up oil prices.
能源情報署預測原油價格“在未來數月內將超過每桶80美元”，在2008年將維持在每桶75美元以上，因為“全球原油市場可能仍將處於緊張狀態。”該機構表示，石油輸出國組織(OPEC，簡稱歐佩克)需要在目前每日增產50萬桶的基礎上，再增產70萬桶，從而使市場維持平衡狀態，直到明年第一季度。
The EIA forecast that crude oil prices would “exceed $80 per barrel over the next several months” and trade above $75 a barrel in 2008 as “global oil markets will likely remain stretched.” It said the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would need to add another 700,000 barrels a day on top of its current production increase of 500,000 b/d to balance the market through the first quarter of 2008.
針對原油價格在1年內超過每桶100美元的看漲期權價格飆升至每桶4.15美元，較10月底上漲近70%。
The cost of using options contracts to insure against crude oil trading at $100 in a year’s time surged to $4.15 per barrel, up almost 70 per cent since the end of October.
在原油價格上漲和美元不斷走軟的共同作用下，黃金價格升至824.3美元/盎司的28年高點，僅略低於1980年1月份850美元/盎司的歷史高點。
The combination of strong crude oil prices and a weakening dollar boosted gold prices to a fresh 28-year high of $824.3 an ounce, just below its all-time high of $850 reached in January 1980.
貴金屬交易員們表示，投資者在增持黃金——沒有人賣出。Dresdner Kleinwort駐倫敦的貴金屬業務主管大衛·赫爾姆斯(David Holmes)表示，金價升至每盎司850美元的“可能性很大。”
Precious metals traders said investors were adding to their gold positions – no one was selling. David Holmes, head of precious metals at Dresdner Kleinwort in London, said a rise to $850 was “very much on the cards”.
瑞銀集團(UBS)駐倫敦的貴金屬策略主管約翰?裡德(John Reade)將其1個月期金價預測定為“不可避免的”每盎司850美元。
John Reade, head of metals strategy at UBS in London, upgraded its one-month gold forecast to an “inevitable” $850 an ounce.
task 2投行的快樂和苦惱
並非所有地方的投行環境都是那麼令人生畏——至少在東方不是。湯姆森金融(Thomson Financial)稱，今年到目前為止，亞太地區(日本除外)的交易規模比去年同期增長了40%。市場的復甦令證券交易業務大獲其利。第三季度，在全球其它市場局面相當糟糕的情況下，花旗集團(Citigroup)在亞太地區賺取了11億美元的淨利潤，僅略少於2002年全年的貢獻。美國銀行(Bank of America)持有的中國建設銀行(CCB)股份在第三季度增值達42億美元。雖然人們感覺不到，但這一收益在規模上要遠遠大於同一季度14.6億美元的交易損失。
It’s not all grim in investment banking ? at least not out east. Asia Pacific ex-Japan deal sizes are up 40 per cent year-to-date, according to Thomson Financial. Resurgent markets are benefiting securities trading. In an otherwise ugly third quarter, Citigroup generated net earnings of $1.1bn in the region ? not far short of the entire 2002 contribution. Bank of America’s stake in China Construction Bank was worth an extra $4.2bn over the course of the third quarter. That dwarfs the $1.46bn of trading losses racked up in the same quarter, in magnitude if not perception.
即便在全球情況普遍不錯的時候，亞洲業務的盈利表現也更勝一籌。以高盛(Goldman Sachs)為例，該銀行去年的稅前收益有28%來自亞洲，相比之下只有21%來自歐洲。這一增長部分源自中國規模巨大的私有化交易。不過，該行一些最大的.客戶也來自亞洲：國家支援的投資機構，如活躍在全球舞臺上的新加坡政府投資公司(GIC)和淡馬錫(Temasek)。亞洲中產階級的崛起，意味著即使那些傳統上專注於批發服務的銀行也在增加人手。蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)計劃，到2010年，其收入的10%來自亞洲。
Even when times are universally good, Asia punches above its weight in terms of profitability. Take Goldman Sachs, which last year derived 28 per cent of pre-tax earnings from Asia compared with just 21 per cent in Europe. Part of the growth is due to China’s mega-privatisations. But Asia is also home to some of the bank’s biggest-spending clients: state-backed investment agencies such as Singapore’s GIC and Temasek, which are active on the global stage. The emergence of Asian middle classes means even banks traditionally focused on wholesale services are beefing up. Royal Bank of Scotland is targeting 10 per cent of revenues from Asia by 2010.
越來越依賴亞洲並非沒有風險——在1997至1998年的金融危機和隨後的非典危機中見證了市場崩潰的人可以證實這一點。中國的股票發行更多的是選擇在上海進行，而不是自由開放的香港——在上海，只有很少幾家國際承銷商和交易商得到了牌照。亞洲的政策制定者可以破壞有利可圖的業務：例如，印度政府上週就宣佈限制參與憑證(participatory note)的使用。但是，亞洲狂歡年的真正麻煩在於，獎金池是全球性的。亞洲的IPO從業人員已經開始抱怨，西方機構分得的蛋糕太大了。
A growing dependence on Asia is not without risks ? as those who watched markets flounder during the financial crisis of 1997-98 and the subsequent Sars virus could testify. More Chinese equity offerings are taking place in Shanghai, where only a handful of international underwriters and traders are licensed, rather than in free-for-all Hong Kong. Regional policy makers can pull the rug from under lucrative business lines, as seen last week when India restricted the use of participatory notes.
But the real downside to a cracking year in Asia is that bonus pools are global. Asian IPO toilers are starting to moanthat too big a share of the spoils ends up in pockets back west.
