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Too Little for Global Warming
Oil and gas will run out1 too fast for doomsday global warming scenarios2 to materialize, according to a controversial new analysis presented this week at the University of Uppsala in Sweden. The authors warn that all the fuel will be burnt before there is enough carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to realize predictions of melting ice caps and searing temperatures. Defending their predictions, scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change3 say they considered a range of estimates of oil and gas reserves, and point out that coal-burning could easily make up4 the shortfall. But all agree that burning coal would be even worse for the planet.
The IPCC’s predictions of global meltdown pushed forward5 the 1997 Kyoto Protocol6, an agreement obliging signatory nations to cut CO2 emissions. The IPCC considered a range of future scenarios, from unlimited burning of fossil-fuels to a fast transition towards greener energy sources. But geologists Anders Sivertsson, Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campbell of Uppsala University say there is not enough oil and gas left even the most conservative of the 40 IPCC scenarios to come to pass7.
Although estimates of oil and gas reserves vary widely, the researchers are part of a growing group of experts who believe that oil supplies will peak as soon as 2010, and gas soon after. Their analysis suggests that oil and gas reserves combined amount to the equivalent of about 3,500 billion barrels of oil considerably less than the 5,000 billion barrels estimated in the most optimistic model envisaged by the IPCC. Even the average forecast of about 8,000 billion barrels is more than twice the Swedish estimate of the world’s remaining reserves.
Nebojsa akicenovic, an energy economist at the University of Vienna, Austria who headed the 80-strong IPCC team that produced the forecasts, says the panel’s work still stands8. He says they factored in9 a much broader and internationally accepted range of oil and gas estimates than the “conservative” Swedes.
Even if oil and gas run out. “there’s a huge amount of coal underground that could be exploited.” He says that burning coal could make the IPCC scenarios come true, but points out that such a switch would be disastrous. Coal is dirtier than oil and gas and produces more CO2 for each unit of energy, as well as releasing large amounts of particulates. He says the latest analysis is a “shot across the bows10” for policy makers.
詞彙:
doomsday /5du:mzdei/n.世界末日 signatory /5si^nEtEri/adj.簽約的 signatory /5si^nEtEri/ adj.簽約的 envisage /in5vizidV/v.設想，打算採取 carbon dioxide (CO2)二氧化碳 Swede /swi:d/n.瑞典 sear /siE/ v.灼熱，燒灼 disastrous /di5zB:strEs/adj.災難性的 shortfall /5FC:tfC:l/n.缺少，不足 particulate /pE5tikjulit/n.微粒protocol /5prEutEkCl/n.協議
註釋:
1. run out:被用完
2. doomsday global warming scenarios:全球變曖這一世界求末的場景。 scenarios:指“預料或期望的一系列事件的模式”，在戲劇中指“一場，一景”。
3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC):政府間氣候變化專門委員會
4. make up:彌補
5. push forward:抓緊進行，推進
6. Kyoto:京都(日本本州中西部一峻市)。Kyoto Protocol:京都議定書(京都議定書是《聯合國氣候變化框架公約》的約定俗成的稱呼。京都議定書規定，到 2010年，所有發達國家排放的二氧化碳等六種溫室氣體的數量，要比 1990年減少 52%。)
7. come to pass: happen, occur (發使)
8. the panel’s work still stands委員會的工作結果 (即對世界燃料的存量估算 )仍然站得住腳。
9. factor in:包括，把……計算在內，如 :They factored sick days and vacations in when they prepared the work schedule. 當他們準備工作時間表時，他們把病假和假期都包括在內。
10. shot across the bows:潑冷水，使……打消計劃和念頭
練習:
1. What do the authors of the new analysis presented at the University of Uppsala intend to say? A The burning of coal will accelerate the arrival of Earth’s doomsday. B The oil reserves are big enough to materialize the doomsday scenarios. C Melting ice caps and searing temperatures exist only in science fiction. D Oil and gas will run out so fast that Earth’s doomsday will never materialize.
2. Nations that signed the Kyoto Protocol agree to A pay attention to global meltdown. B cut CO2 emissions. C use more green energy. D stop using fossil fuels.
3. What are the estimates of the world’s oil and gas reserves? A 4,000 billion barrels by the average forecast. B 8,000 billion barrels estimated by the Swedes. C 3,500 barrels envisaged by IPCC. D 3,500 billion by a growing numher of scientists.
4. Which of the following about Nebojsa Nakicenovic is true? A He thinks fossil fuels are as dirty as oil and gas. B He thinks green fuels will replace oil and gas eventually. C He thinks IPCC’s view on the world’s oil reserves is too optimistic. D He thinks that IPCC’s estimates are more optimistic than the Swedes.
5. Which of the following is the near explanation of Nakicenovic's assertion that“… such a switch would be disastrous …”? A The IPCC scenarios would come true because burning coal will emit larger amounts of CO2. B A switch to burning coal would produce disastrous environmental problems.
C Oil and gas to replace coal as fuel would speed up the process of global warming. D A switch from the IPCC scenarios to the policymakers’ ones would be disastrous.
答案與題解 :
1. D 第一段第一句 too fast for doomsday global warming scenarios to materialize中包含 too... to結構，意思是：“太……以至於不……”。new analysis 的爭議性 (controversial)在於，這種分析認為，在大氣含有足夠多的二氧化碳觸發地球末日到來之前，地球上所有的燃料儲存都將已燃盡。
2. B 第二段第一句告訴我們 .因為 IPCC預言了全球性冰雪融化，這就導致了京部議定書的出臺。京都議定書責成簽約國減少二氧化碳的排放量。 A、C和 D都不是作者所要表達的意思。
3. D 越來越多的專家認為 2010年將是石油供應的高峰期，緊接著就是天然氣。他們認為石油和天燃氣的`總量在 3,500 billion barrels左右。而 IPCC的估算是 5,000 billion barrels。
4. D Nebojsa Nakicenovic認為瑞典人對石油儲藏量的估算是保守的，少於 4萬億桶，而 IPPC的估算是 5萬億桶，所以是 more optimistic的。Nakicenovic是 energy economist, 所以既是經濟學家，又是能源專家。他認
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為 IPCC的估算考慮到一些國際認定的燃料儲存， A、B和 C都不符合文章的意思。
5. B文章昀後一段中的 he指上段中的 Nebojsa Nakicenovic。他認為有大量的地下煤可以開採，煤的燃燒能使 IPCC的預言成為現實，但是燃燒煤會產生災難性的後果。 such a switch指從使用石油和天然氣到使用煤的轉換。
