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第一篇：A Changed Global Reality 世界經濟格局新變化
Say this for the young century: we live in interesting times. Not quite 2 1⁄2 years ago, the world economy tipped into the most severe downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. World trade slowed sharply. Unemployment lines grew longer, especially in the old industrial economies. Financial institutions that had seemed as solid as granite disappeared as if they were no more substantial than a bunch of flowers in the hands of an old-style magician.
對於新世紀，我們得這樣說：我們生活在一個有趣的時代。差不多兩年半之前，世界經濟陷入了20世紀30年代經濟大蕭條時期以來最慘重的低迷狀態。世界貿易程序大幅放緩。失業隊伍也越來越快，這在舊工業經濟體系表現尤為突出。原來堅如磐石的金融機構也消失了，似乎還不如老套的魔術師變的花束看起來真實。
Given that the scale of the downturn was so epochal, it should not be surprising that the nature of the recovery would likewise be the stuff of history. And it has been. As they make their way to Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) by helicopter, bus, car or train (which is the right way to do it), the members of the global economic and political elite will find themselves coming to terms with something they have never known before.
考慮到經濟衰退幅度如此的跨時代，經濟復甦程序會很慢也是理所當然的，對此我們不應該感到吃驚。事實也正如我們所料，復甦程序確實很慢。全球經濟政治精英乘直升飛機、大巴、小汽車或是火車前往達沃斯參加一年一度的世界經濟論壇會議，此次會議上，全球經濟政治精英會發現自己開始接受一些聞所未聞的事情。
The new reality can be expressed like this. For more than 200 years, since the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen two economies. One has dominated technological innovation and trade and amassed great wealth. The second — much of it politically under the thumb of the first — has remained poor and technologically dependent. This divide remains stubbornly real. The rich world — the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the four original Asian dragons — accounts for only 16% of total world population but nearly 70% of world output.
當今的情況是這樣的。自工業革命以來的二百多年間，世界出現了兩大經濟體。一個支配著技術創新和貿易，累積了大量財富。另一個在政治上主要受前者的控制，在經濟上一直處於貧窮狀態並且在技術上存在依賴性。兩者的鴻亙古存在。發達國家----美國、加拿大、西歐、澳大利亞、紐西蘭、日本及亞洲四小龍，以世界總人口的16%輸出著世界將近70%的產品。
But change is upon us. The developed world of the haves is struggling to restart growth and preserve welfare states, while the world of the once have-nots has surged out of the downturn. Big emerging economies like China and India have discovered new sources of domestic demand. Parts of Africa are attracting real interest from investors. All told, the strength of the developing world has supported the global economy. The World Bank estimates that economic growth in low- and middle-income countries contributed almost half of world growth (46%) in 2010.
世界形勢正發生著變化。在發達國家的富人們努力重新刺激經濟增長並維持社會福利的時候，曾經的窮人們卻已經擺脫了經濟困境。像中國和印度這樣大的新興經濟體已經找到了國內需求的新來源。非洲的部分地區也正吸引著對他們真正感興趣的投資者。總之，發展中國家的力量撐起了世界經濟。據世界銀行估計，2010年，中低收入國家的經濟增長約佔世界經濟增長的一半(46%)。
A Sigh of Relief 經濟回暖，令人欣慰
In the long term, this is nothing but good news. As billions of poor people become more prosperous, they will be able to afford the comforts their counterparts in the rich world have long considered the normal appurtenances of life. But before we celebrate a new economic order, deep divisions both between and within nations have to be overcome. Otherwise, the world could yet tip back into a beggar-thy-neighbor populism that will end up beggaring everyone. We are not out of the woods yet.
從長遠看來，這真的是個好訊息。隨著幾十億的貧苦人們開始變得富有起來，他們也將能夠支付得起發達國家的人們所擁有過的享受，而這些享受在富人們眼中僅僅是普通的生活附屬品而已。但是，在慶祝一個新的經濟秩序建立之前，我們必須克服國與國之間以及國家內部存在的深層分歧。否則，世界將會重新陷入以鄰為壑的民粹主義，最終每個人都淪為乞丐，我們仍未脫離困境。
First, though, let's assess how things stand. The world is in a much better state than many expected it would be a year ago. The double-dip recession some economists feared never materialized. In the U.S., which seemed to stall in the summer, there are early signs that consumers are spending and banks are lending again, while the stock market is at its highest point in 21⁄2 years. Though Europe is wheezing under cascading sovereign-debt crises, it has so far avoided the worst-case scenarios — a collapse of the euro, a debt crisis that spills from small economies such as Greece and Ireland to much bigger ones like Italy and Spain, and bitter social unrest in those nations that are having to massage wages down while cutting public budgets.
不過首先讓我們評估一下目前情況。現在世界的狀況比一年前我們所想象的要好得多。一些經濟學家一直害怕發生的“雙底衰退”也從未出現過。2008年的美國經濟似乎一直停滯不前，但是現在一些早期跡象表明顧客開始消費了，銀行也開始發放貸款了，同時股市也在經濟蕭條兩年半之後達到了巔峰狀態。儘管歐洲一直在一重接一重的主權外債危機下苟延殘喘，但是它到目前為止已經避免了最糟糕的狀況-----歐元崩潰，歐元崩潰是一種債務危機，從希臘和愛爾蘭這樣小的經濟體流竄到義大利和西班牙這樣大的經濟體，並且加劇了一些國家的社會騷亂，這些國家在縮減公共預算的同時不得不減少薪資。
Amid all the encouraging news (or at least the absence of terrible tidings), Goldman Sachs economists have turned practically giddy, recently upgrading their 2011 global- and U.S.-growth forecasts (to 4.8% and 3.4%, respectively). While 2010 was the "Year of Doubt," 2011, they proclaim, will be the "Year of Recovery." U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini, the Cassandra of the crisis, reckons that if all goes right and nothing terrible goes wrong, the global economy might grow nearly 4% this year.
聽到如此多鼓舞人心的訊息(或者至少是沒有很糟糕的訊息)，高盛經濟學家幾乎變得輕率起來，最近他們更新了2011年全球和美國經濟增長預測(分別是4.8%和3.4%)。儘管2010年是“令人懷疑的一年”，但是高盛經濟學家們宣稱2011年肯定是經濟復甦的一年，努里爾•盧比尼----美國經濟學家，這次經濟危機的預言者，認為如果一切都順利，並且沒有更糟糕的事情發生，全球經濟今年可能會增長將近4%。
It must be said: not everyone agrees. Jim Walker, an economist at research firm Asianomics in Hong Kong, predicts that 2011 will be a "year of reckoning." The rebound in the U.S., Walker says, is a mirage created by excessive stimulus. He expects the U.S. to slip into the double dip it dodged in 2010. Even the less bearish worry that the global economy is far from healed. Most economists expect the rebound to flatten out in 2011, with growth likely to be lower than in 2010. In mid-January, the World Bank estimated global GDP growth will slow to 3.3% in 2011 from 3.9% in 2010. Stephen Roach, an economist at Yale University, believes that the world economy is still digging itself out of the debt and distortions built up during the last boom. "It's a really slow postcrisis workout," Roach says. "I'm not prepared to give the global economy the green light."
有人肯定會說：並不是每個人都同意這個觀點。吉姆•沃克----香港亞洲經濟分析諮詢公司的經濟學家，預測2011年將會是“清算之年”。沃克談到，美國經濟的反彈只是由過度刺激形成的海市蜃樓。他認為美國將會落入2010年僥倖躲避過去的“雙底衰退”之中。即使是不那麼悲觀的人也擔心全球經濟遠沒有恢復。大多數經濟學家預計2011年經濟反彈會逐漸消失，經濟增長也可能會低於2010年。一月中旬，世界銀行估測全球GDP增長將由2010年的3.9%下降到2011年的3.3%。耶魯大學的經濟學家史蒂芬•羅奇認為，世界經濟仍會極力從上次經濟繁榮期產生的債務和扭曲中脫身。“這真是一次緩慢的後經濟危機考驗。”羅奇說道，“我並不準備給經濟復甦這個觀點亮綠燈”。
The caution is understandable. In the developed world, unemployment remains sickeningly high (9.4% in the U.S., 10.1% in the euro zone). The private-sector debt crisis of 2008-09 has morphed into a public-sector debt crisis in 2010-11, a result of the debt and deficits amassed in the process of stimulating economies and bailing out banks during the downturn.
這種謹慎是可以理解的.。在發達國家，失業率仍然很高(美國是9.4%，歐元區是10.1%)。2008年9月的私營部門債務危機到2010年11月已經演變為公共部門危機。這是由經濟低迷期刺激經濟和救助銀行時所累積的債務和財政赤字造成的。
