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For all the natural and man-made disasters of the past year, travelers seem more determined than ever to leave home.
Never mind the tsunami devastation in Asia last December, the recent earthquake in Kashmir or the suicide bombings this year in London and Bali, among other places on or off the tourist trail. The number of leisure travelers visiting tourist destinations hit by trouble has in some cases bounced back to a level higher than before disaster struck.
"This new fast recovery of tourism we are observing is kind of strange," said John Koldowski, director for the Strategic Intelligence Center of the Bangkok-based Pacific Asia Travel Association. "It makes you think about the adage that any publicity is good publicity."
It is still too soon to compile year-on-year statistics for the disasters of the past 12 months, but travel industry experts say that the broad trends are already clear. Leisure travel is expected to increase by nearly 5 percent this year, according to the World Tourism and Travel Council.
Tourism and travel now seem to bounce back faster and higher each time there is an event of this sort," said Ufi Ibrahim, vice president of the London-based World Tourism and Travel Council. For London, where suicide bombers killed 56 and wounded 700 on July 8, she said, "It was almost as if people who stayed away after the bomb attack then decided to come back twice."
Early indicators show that the same holds true for other disaster-struck destinations. Statistics compiled by the Pacific Asia Travel Association, for example, show that monthly visitor arrivals in Sri Lanka, where the Dec. 26, 2004, tsunami left more than 30,000 people dead or missing, were higher than one year earlier for every month from March through August of this year.
A case commonly cited by travel professionals as an early example of the trend is Bali, where 202 people were killed in bombings targeting Western tourists in October 2002. Visitor arrivals plunged to 993,000 for the year after the bombing, but bounced back to 1.46 million in 2004, a level higher than the two years before the bomb, according to the Pacific Asia Travel Association.
Even among Australians, who suffered the worst casualties in the Bali bombings, the number of Bali-bound visitors bounced back within two years to the highest level since 1998, according the Pacific Asia Travel Association.
Bali was hit again this year by suicide bombers who killed 19 people in explosions at three restaurants.
Visits are also on the upswing to post-tsunami Thailand, where the giant waves killed 5,400 and left more than 5,000 missing.
Although the tsunami killed more than 500 Swedes on the Thai resort island of Phuket, the largest number of any foreign nationality to die, Swedes are returning to the island in larger numbers than last year, according to My Travel Sweden, a Stockholm-based group that sends 600,000 tourists overseas annually and claims a 28 percent market share for Sweden.
"We were confident that Thailand would eventually bounce back as a destination, but we didn"t think that this year it would come back even stronger than last year," said Joakim Eriksson, director of communication for My Travel Sweden. "We were very surprised because we really expected a significant decline."
Eriksson said My Travel now expects a 5 percent increase in visitors to both Thailand and Sri Lanka this season compared with the same season last year. This behavior is a sharp change from the patterns of the 1990s, Eriksson said.
"During the first Gulf war we saw a sharp drop in travel as a whole, and the same after Sept. 11," Eriksson said. "Now the main impact of terrorism or disasters is a change in destination."
【參考譯文】
儘管去年發生了許多自然災害和人為的災害，但是旅遊者比以往更加堅決地出門旅行。
雖然去年12月亞洲的海嘯產生了巨大的破壞力，最近克什米爾發生了地震，倫敦和巴厘島出現了自殺性炸彈襲擊，遊客卻毫不在意，無論在旅遊路線上的地點或其他地方是否有危險。在某些情況下，受到災難影響的旅遊地區吸引的遊客人數快速反彈，甚至比災難發生之前的數量還多。
“我們注意到旅遊業最近快速回升，這種情況是有一點奇怪。” 總部設在曼谷的太平洋亞洲旅遊協會戰略情報中心主任約翰-考爾多斯基說道，“這使你想到那句老話，就是-只要是宣傳,好壞都不賴。”
雖然整理過去12個月的災難年度資料還為時尚早，但是旅遊業專家指出，現在旅遊業發展總的趨勢是清楚明確的.。世界旅遊協會指出，今年休閒旅遊預期增長約5%。
“每次一有災難發生，旅遊業現在好像反彈得更快，旅遊人數比災害前更高。”總部在倫敦得世界旅遊及旅行理事會副理事長尤菲-伊布拉辛說道。比如倫敦。7月8日倫敦的自殺爆炸襲擊造成56人死亡，700人受傷。尤菲說：“看起來幾乎是那些躲開了炸彈襲擊的人決定再來倫敦看看。”
早期數字指出，對於其他遭受災難的地方來說也是如此。例如，太平洋亞洲旅遊協會的統計表明，雖然2004年12月26日的海嘯造成超過3萬人死傷，但是今天3月到8月間，來到斯里蘭卡的遊客人數每個月都比去年同期要高。
為了說明這種趨勢，旅遊專業人士常常引用的一個先前的例子是巴厘島。2002年10月，針對西方人的炸彈襲擊造成202人死亡。然而在爆炸後一年，遊客人數驟降至993000人，而2004年反彈至146萬人。太平洋亞洲旅遊協會指出，這一數字比炸彈襲擊的前兩年還高。
太平洋亞洲旅遊協會還指出，即使是在巴厘島炸彈襲擊中傷亡最為慘重的澳大利亞人也是如此。僅在襲擊後的兩年內，來巴厘島旅遊的人數就反彈至自1998年以來的最高點。
自殺式炸彈襲擊者今年再度襲擊了巴厘島，三所飯館發生爆炸，造成19人死亡。
泰國在遭受了海嘯襲擊後，也吸引了更多的遊客，而當時的海嘯掀起了巨浪，造成5400人死亡，5000人失蹤。
雖然泰國旅遊勝地普吉島的海嘯曾造成500多瑞典人死亡，是死亡人數最多的外國人，但是“瑞典-我的旅行”組織說，更多的瑞典人回到普吉島旅遊，總數超過去年。該組織總部設在斯德哥爾摩，每年把60萬遊客送往海外，佔有28%的瑞典旅遊市場份額。
“我們深信，泰國最終重新成為旅遊熱點地區，但是我們沒有想到，今年的反彈力度比去年還要強勁。”“瑞典-我的旅行”組織交通部主任約吉姆-埃裡克森說，“本來我們以為人數會有大的下滑，所以對現在的情況感到十分吃驚。”
埃裡克森說，該組織預計，與去年相同的旅遊季節相比，今天去泰國和斯里蘭卡的遊客人數均將上升5%。他說，這種情況與20世紀90年代有了顯著的變化。
“在第一次海灣戰爭期間，我們發現，旅遊業總體上有顯著的下滑，911之後也是如此。”埃裡克森說，“現在，恐怖主義活動或災害襲擊給旅遊業造成的影響無非是改變了旅遊的目的地而已。”
